Dhaka-Delhi relations: A new equation

Recently, the visit of the chief of India's intelligence agency RAW to Dhaka and Indian High Commissioner Dinesh Trivedi's meeting with Prime Minister Tarique Rahman are being seen as part of efforts to rebuild this relationship. The BRICS summit has also created an opportunity to increase communication between the two countries. However, several political and diplomatic obstacles have emerged in normalising the relationship.

Among these, the most discussed issue is Sheikh Hasina's recent press briefing. In Bangladesh's political circles, there are allegations that such activities were carried out with India's support or approval. If these allegations are true, then the matter is undoubtedly sensitive for the current government of Bangladesh. Because, in the new political reality, Dhaka is not willing to accept foreign influence in its internal affairs as easily as before.

Another issue is the language of the invitation letter sent by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. There, the fact that Bangladesh's Prime Minister Tarique Rahman was not directly addressed as Prime Minister but referred to as the Chairman of BIMSTEC is considered politically significant. In diplomacy, the use of words is often not mere formality; rather, it can also express a country's political position or message.

Perhaps the biggest change in Bangladesh's current foreign policy is here—Dhaka now wants to build multifaceted relations instead of being overly dependent on any one country. The attempt to maintain a balance in relations with various countries, including the United States and China, may be part of that policy. In particular, if Bangladesh's economic and strategic engagement with China continues to grow, India will have reason to rethink.

In this situation, a claim has emerged that Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has decided not to visit India. However, there is also discussion that instead of directly rejecting the invitation, Bangladesh has put forward two important conditions. First, Sheikh Hasina should be sent back to Bangladesh, and second, Faisal, the accused in the Osman Hadi murder case, should be handed over to Bangladesh.

Both conditions are politically very significant. If Sheikh Hasina is sent back to Bangladesh, questions may arise again over various decisions of her regime, India-Bangladesh relations, and the political events of the last 17 years. Similarly, the investigation into the Osman Hadi murder case and bringing those involved back to Bangladesh could also become sensitive for relations between the two countries.

However, in the case of such allegations, it is important to remember one thing—to establish a serious allegation against any individual, government or state as the final truth, reliable investigation and evidence are needed. Political statements, social media claims, or allegations from various quarters should not be accepted as truth without verification.

The issue of sending back around 3,000 illegal Indian nationals working in Bangladesh's corporate sector to their own country has also been discussed as an example of the strains in the two countries' relations. If the number and the process are confirmed by official information, then it should be seen as part of immigration and labour market management, while also considering its diplomatic implications.

All in all, the Dhaka-Delhi relationship has now reached a stage where it is difficult to explain the new reality with the old equation. If Bangladesh truly follows a multifaceted foreign policy and wants to rebuild its relationship with India on the basis of mutual interests, sovereignty and equality, that will be an important change in Bangladesh's diplomacy.

On the other hand, the reality is also clear for India—the opportunity to view Bangladesh as before within a specific political equation has diminished. To make the relationship sustainable, mutual trust, political recognition, border, trade, security, and the interests of the people must be given importance and a new foundation of trust must be built.

Ultimately, the Bangladesh-India relationship is not a matter of anyone's victory or defeat. A stable, balanced and mutually respectful relationship is what matters most in the interests of the people of both countries. The current situation could also be an opportunity to create that new relationship—if the two countries go beyond past calculations and prioritise reality and mutual interests.